The trends

Follow the money. Watch the rankings.

The Opportunity Scholarship has grown 9.0x in five years. While that was happening, NC's teacher pay ranking dropped 10 spots and the state landed dead last in per-pupil funding effort. Here's what the trend lines actually look like, side by side.

A quick note · seriouslyPlenty of voucher schools are doing real work... serious classical and college-prep programs, long-standing parish schools, and at least 15 in this dataset that specifically serve students with disabilities and learning differences. This site isn't an indictment of any of them. It's about a system that has no way to tell them apart from a ghost school collecting checks.
01

Voucher funding, by year

From $48M in 2019–20 to $432M in 2024–25. That's 9.0x growth in five years. The 2025–26 estimate is NC's own budget allocation.

2019–20
$48M
2020–21
$61M
2021–22
$79M
2022–23
$135M
2023–24
$186M
2024–25
$432M
2025–26
$600M
2025–26 estimate (NC budget allocation, per WUNC)
02

Meanwhile, NC's public schools keep slipping

NC's average teacher pay rank fell from #33 to #43 over the same period voucher spending grew 9.0x. That's ten states' worth of downward movement. And teacher pay is the good number.

Teacher pay, NC national rank · lower line = worse rank
#25#30#35#40#45#50202020212022202320242025#33START#432025 · WORST EVER
#43/ 50
Teacher pay
$58,292 vs $72,030 national
#50/ 51
Per-pupil spending
$5,600 below national avg
#51/ 51
Funding effort
% of state GDP spent on PK-12
Sources: NCAE (April 2025) for teacher-pay rankings, derived from NEA Rankings & Estimates. Funding level and funding-effort ranks from Education Law Center's Making the Grade 2025 (December 2025). 51 states means 50 states + DC.
See alsoWhat could $600M buy instead? andycantwin.com/clock →
03

Religious vs. not

85% of every voucher dollar since 2019–20 has gone to a school with a religious affiliation. The school split is 72% religious. So religious schools are over-represented in where the money actually lands.

⚠ per-school counts still being cleaned · the split holds
By school count
72%
28%
Religious · 530Unverified/secular · 207
By dollars received (2019–20 through 2024–25)
85%
15%
Religious · $737MUnverified/secular · $132M
"Unverified/secular" = not in NCES Private School Survey and no religious signal in the school's name. See the nerd page for how religious affiliation was assigned.
04

Tuition, grouped

The Tier-1 voucher tops out at $7,942. Roughly a third of schools with published tuition land within 20% of that ceiling... a pretty crowded neighborhood for a coincidence.

⚠ per-school counts still being cleaned · the split holds
Schools grouped by lowest published tuition · 388 schools
5256111458321723136927556← VOUCHER · $7,942$0k$4k$8k$12k$16k$20k$24k$28k$30k+at or below voucherabove voucher

204 of 388 schools with known tuition charge at or below the Tier-1 voucher. For the 63 schools charging $15,000 or more, the voucher covers less than half of tuition. The rest comes from families. (343 schools haven't published a tuition number.)

05

If you live here, what 'choice' are we talking about?

"School choice" only works if there's a school to choose. 13 of NC's 100 counties have zero voucher-taking schools. Another 9 have exactly one. For 40 counties, the menu has two items or fewer.

How many voucher-taking schools does each NC county have?
0 schools
13 counties
1 school
9 counties
2 schools
18 counties
3–5 schools
23 counties
6+ schools
37 counties
The 9 single-school counties
AveryChowanClayGreeneNorthamptonPolkSwainWarrenYancey
Bottom 10 counties by voucher dollars received
Greene
1 school
$26K
Davie
3 schools
$50K
Duplin
4 schools
$57K
Anson
2 schools
$85K
Warren
1 school
$106K
Pender
4 schools
$159K
Clay
1 school
$189K
Granville
2 schools
$205K
Currituck
3 schools
$296K
Polk
1 school
$298K

Davie County's single voucher-taking school has collected $50,038 in six years. Wake County, by contrast, has pulled in $73.8M... that's 1,475x more. Same state. Same program.

A note on what "zero schools" means: these counts reflect schools that actually accepted Opportunity Scholarship vouchers (2019–20 through 2024–25). A county might have private schools that simply don't participate in the program. Either way, if you live in one of the 13 zero-school counties, the voucher isn't buying you a seat anywhere nearby.

06

Who's actually using the voucher?

In 2024–25, 91.6% of Opportunity Scholarship recipients were already enrolled in private school the year before. The voucher wasn't how they got in.

The program was pitched as a way for public-school families to access private options they couldn't otherwise afford. The most recent pipeline data shows something different. Of roughly 80,000 voucher recipients in 2024–25, only about 8% transferred in from a public school. The rest were already paying private tuition.

Source: NC DPI / NCSEAA pipeline data via EdNC, 2024–25 reporting.
Appendix · reference tables

Where the schools and the dollars concentrate. Useful for lookup, not part of the story above.

07

Top 10 counties by voucher-taking schools

Mecklenburg
75
Wake
74
Guilford
36
Durham
33
Cumberland
31
Forsyth
28
Buncombe
24
Union
20
New Hanover
19
Pitt
18
08

Top 10 counties by voucher dollars received

Mecklenburg
$42M
Wake
$41M
Durham
$22M
Cumberland
$20M
Guilford
$18M
Buncombe
$18M
Forsyth
$16M
Alamance
$13M
Union
$11M
Pitt
$11M
Total across 6 reported years (2019–20 through 2024–25). County is assigned to the school, not the student's home.
09

Schools where the 2024-25 voucher count blew up overnight

These are the biggest single-year increases in voucher accounts tied to one school address, from the 2023-24 JLEOC report to the 2024-25 JLEOC report. Real state dollars, real state ledger. Some of this is the income cap coming off and the program actually growing. Some of it is almost certainly one building processing vouchers for kids who are elsewhere... online, satellite, co-op. I’m not going to tell you which is which school by school. I don’t know. Here are the numbers. Draw your own conclusions.

School · county2023-242024-25Δ new% jump$ paid 24-25
Northeast Academy
Lasker, Northampton
88967+879+1,000%$4M
Grace Covenant Academy
Cornelius, Mecklenburg
25898+873+3,490%$5M
Millersville Christian Academy
Taylorsville, Alexander
157961+804+510%$5M
Covenant Day School
Matthews, Mecklenburg
54741+687+1,270%$3M
Genesis Christian School
Fayetteville, Cumberland
13699+686+5,280%$4M
Walton Academy
Greenville, Pitt
15682+667+4,450%$3M
Carmel Christian School
Matthews, Mecklenburg
38637+599+1,580%$3M
Charlotte Christian School
Charlotte, Mecklenburg
24608+584+2,430%$2M
Hill Learning Center
Durham, Durham
15557+542+3,610%$3M
Fellowship Baptist Academy
Durham, Durham
100631+531+530%$4M
Calvary Day School
Winston-Salem, Forsyth
119642+523+440%$3M
Weddington Christian Academy
Weddington, Union
2522+520+26,000%$3M
Friends-Montessori School
Woodfin, Buncombe
6503+497+8,280%$3M
University Christian High School
Hickory, Catawba
10490+480+4,800%$3M
WH Johnston SDA School
Hickory, Catawba
19469+450+2,370%$2M
Source: JLEOC Annual Reports, 2023-24 and 2024-25. Ranked by absolute increase in voucher accounts. The state publishes the address where a voucher was paid, not where the student actually sat.
10

Top 15 schools by 2024-25 voucher enrollment

Same ledger, different cut. These are the schools with the most voucher accounts paid against their address in 2024-25. Spoiler... most of the names you just saw in the jumps table are here too.

School · countyVoucher accounts$ paid 24-25
Northeast Academy
Lasker, Northampton
967$4M
Millersville Christian Academy
Taylorsville, Alexander
961$5M
Grace Covenant Academy
Cornelius, Mecklenburg
898$5M
Covenant Day School
Matthews, Mecklenburg
741$3M
Genesis Christian School
Fayetteville, Cumberland
699$4M
Walton Academy
Greenville, Pitt
682$3M
Concord Academy
Concord, Cabarrus
646$4M
Calvary Day School
Winston-Salem, Forsyth
642$3M
Carmel Christian School
Matthews, Mecklenburg
637$3M
Fellowship Baptist Academy
Durham, Durham
631$4M
Burlington Christian Academy
Burlington, Alamance
610$3M
Charlotte Christian School
Charlotte, Mecklenburg
608$2M
Hill Learning Center
Durham, Durham
557$3M
Life Spring Academy
Clayton, Johnston
533$3M
Weddington Christian Academy
Weddington, Union
522$3M
Source: JLEOC Annual Report 2024-25. One row per voucher-receiving private school, ranked by account count.
∗ THIS WAS DELIBERATE ∗

It’s a budget line. It’s still being written.

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